VBC Lens VBC Lens . Contract Simulator
MSSP · ACO REACH · LEAD · Medicare Advantage

The flight simulator for value‑based care contracts.

Learn the levers. Prove the impact.

VBC Lens simulates the full mechanics of shared-savings contracts — benchmarks, MSR gates, risk corridors, quality withholds, multi-year ratcheting — and shows what each one does to real dollars. Test the decision in the simulator, before the money is real.

Beta version coming soon

Free during beta · paid plans arrive at full release

Interactive · try it
Two levers, real money.

Attributed lives and documented risk score — the two levers everyone understands. Both raise the benchmark, and the benchmark decides the money. Notice which one pays faster.

20,000
1.00
Risk-adjusted benchmark (RAF 1.00) $260M
Actual cost of care — held constant $255M
Savings on paper $5.2M
Shared savings to the ACO
$3.9M
Earned the hard way — every dollar from the 2% real cost reduction.

Simplified illustration: flat $13,000 per-beneficiary benchmark at risk score 1.0, actual care spending held 2% below baseline, 75% share of positive savings. The full simulator models the CMS counter-mechanics built to catch exactly this — coding-intensity caps, MSR gates, benchmark ratchets — across 34 contracts, PY2023–2026.

The Problem

The contract flies blind for 21 months.

A performance year runs 12 months. Claims run out and CMS reconciles for roughly 9 more. Only then does the check — or the clawback — arrive. Most teams learn how their contract actually behaves after the money has already moved.

Months 0–12 Performance year — operate, spend, no revenue
Months 12–21 Claims runout & CMS reconciliation — wait
Month ~21 The check — or the clawback

Simulator pilots don't learn in the air. Neither should ACOs.

Who It's For

Two seats at the same table.

ACO operators and the vendors who serve them argue about the same levers. VBC Lens puts both in the same cockpit — one contract model, two ways to use it.

For ACO leadership & managers

“I run the contract.”

  • Will the ACO clear its MSR — and at what probability?
  • What does year 5 look like after benchmark rebasing and ratcheting?
  • Which levers actually move net-to-PCP — RAF, quality, utilization, funding structure?
10-year Monte Carlo projection of cumulative shared savings with P5-P95 uncertainty bands

10-year Monte Carlo projection — 1,000 iterations, MSSP Enhanced

Run the contract →
For care management & health tech vendors

“I improve the contract.”

  • Put the ROI story in the buyer's own contract math — not a generic spreadsheet.
  • What does a 1% utilization reduction earn this ACO under its actual share rate and corridors?
  • Compare scenarios side by side — with and without the intervention.
Side-by-side key mechanics of MSSP Enhanced vs ACO REACH Professional Year 1 outcome comparison table with deltas between two contracts

Side-by-side comparison — MSSP Enhanced vs ACO REACH Professional. Dedicated vendor-attribution module is on the beta roadmap.

Prove the ROI →
How It Works

Four steps from contract to conviction.

1

Choose the aircraft

Pick from 34 real contracts — MSSP Basic A–E and Enhanced, ACO REACH, LEAD, and Medicare Advantage — each carrying its own year's CMS rules, PY2023–2026.

2

Set the conditions

Panel size, attribution, cost trend, RAF, quality scores, funding structure — every assumption is a visible, movable lever, never a buried cell.

3

Fly the years

Multi-year projection with benchmark ratcheting, reserves, and failure scenarios — plus 1,000-run Monte Carlo for the full risk distribution.

4

Land the decision

Walk into the board meeting with probability distributions instead of point guesses — and every assumption written down where the room can see it.

What's Modeled

Specific enough to argue with.

Every mechanic is modeled from the governing rules and documented — so when the simulator surprises, the reasons are inspectable.

Contract catalog
MSSP Basic A–E MSSP Enhanced REACH Professional REACH Global LEAD MA Savings & Quality PY2023–2026
Methodology
§425.652 benchmark rebasing ACPT trend blending Regional blend & discounts Quality withhold & earnback Sobol quasi–Monte Carlo Four funding structures
Scope, honestly. VBC Lens is a forward-scenario planner for education and strategy — not a reconciliation engine, and not legal, financial, or medical advice.
ACO Leadership Care Management Vendors Health Tech Platforms Health Plans PCPs & Practices MSOs & Enablement Lenders & PE Consultants & Actuaries Educators & Students
“The people signing these contracts deserve to understand them as well as the people writing them. That's the whole product.”
— Physician-built · Meet the founder

Learn the levers before the money moves.

Beta version coming soon

Free during beta · paid plans arrive at full release